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My, how things have changed over such a short period of time. Earlier this year when I ran a simple screen looking for stocks in the S&P 500 that traded below book value, I found that more than 20% of the index was selling below book. When I ran that screen today, I found that only 7.5%, or 37 stocks in the index, currently trade below that level. The rally has pretty much emptied the cookie jar for asset-based value investors like me.
Financials still dominate the list of course. Some of Jim Cramer's favorite regional banks are on there, with Huntington Bancshares trading at 60% of tangible book value and Fifth Third Bancorp at 80%. Jim and I are at odds over the banks, but if you favor his view over mine, I would still suggest staying with those trading below book value to lessen the risk. I think it is too early to enter the sector, but I leave it to readers to decide which viewpoint they favor. Citigroup and Capital One are also below book, but they are at the top of my "not with a gun to my head" list of stocks that I think are just too dangerous to own.
A couple of leading refiners make the cut as well. It has been tough times for the refiners as declining energy demand and high supplies have limited growth opportunities and kept refining spreads pretty tight. The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates that gasoline demand in the U.S. will fall by 0.11% in 2009 before rebounding in 2010 by 0.55%. Demand for distillates such as heating oil and diesel fuel is expected to fall 8.35% this year and rise 3.31% in 2010. As a result of this weak demand, refining margins are expected to tighten by 11% this year and widen by just 1% in 2010. With poor refining trends, the stocks are cheap.
In spite of the outlook, I like the refiners below book value. The idea of buying assets that are fairly |
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