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Recessions are a tough business. No matter what our instincts or advisors may tell us, chances are that our investments will suffer during a recession, whether we're too late in getting out of them, or too late to get back in. Below we expose some of the prevailing myths about recession investing, which carry one common theme among them: recessions are quite deft at rewriting old rules and breaking old patterns.
Myth No.1 - I need to be in the safest stocks to make any money.
This myth is only true before the recession takes hold. Safer, defensive stocks will tend to decline less than more cyclical names like financials, basic materials and retail stocks. But once the recession is in, the "safe" stocks may actually underperform because as soon as the market begins to rally forward again, it will be the most beaten down names that rise the fastest. So while that steady grocery store stock you held all the way through the recession may go up 10%, the beaten down bank stock may run 50% during a rebound.
So remember, once the recession is in, the most important decision is whether or not to be in the market at all (asset allocation). Once that choice is made, it's generally best to stay the course by participating in the broad market.
Myth No.2 - Bonds are the safest place to be.
This is not necessarily true. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, so if you hold individual bonds and the rate of inflation rises dramatically (which can occur coming out of a recession), the price of |
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