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Some investors rely purely on mathematics when deciding which stocks to buy or investments to make. But many investors make those decisions relying to a considerable degree on imagination and faith, too.
These "story" investors envision a future path for the world, sometimes improbable, build a case for it, and then think, "How can I make money on that?"
Here are five such broad scenarios that many investors are considering today, at a moment when the economy and financial markets seem to be at a key transition point, from recession to uncertain recovery.
Some of these scenarios are in competition with each other, but all have their adherents, and all present opportunities.
1. The Jobless Recovery
In this widely held view, the recession might end soon, but businesses will be slow to hire again, resulting in a "jobless recovery." Abysmal for workers, this might not be catastrophic for stocks. Unemployment rose for more than a year after the 1990-91 recession, but stocks rose, too.
Companies that provide stuff and services that unemployed people need to survive are more likely to thrive than those offering more luxurious fare. This group includes consumer-staples providers like Procter & Gamble and Kraft Foods, discount retailers like Wal-Mart Stores, drug makers like Pfizer and utilities like Duke Energy.
More surprisingly, some analysts also believe technology and telecommunications firms can survive in a jobless recovery, too. Mobile devices are increasingly staples, and tech can help businesses boost |
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