 |
Want to be sure you won't run out of money in retirement? The standard advice that you'll hear from planners (or find on the pages of Money Magazine) is to follow the 4% rule: Withdraw no more than 4% of your portfolio the first year of retirement and then increase that amount for inflation each year. And indeed, if you do this, there will be roughly a 90% chance that your money will last at least 30 years.
But while this rule is a decent guideline for managing your withdrawals, it can't cover all of the surprises that life - and the markets - may have in store for you. Before you adopt this regimen, consider these two rarely discussed risks.
First, if your investments lose money or post subpar gains early in your retirement, those reassuring 90% odds shrink.
Earn less than 2% a year on average in the first five years, for example, and the odds of your money lasting three decades or longer fall to 57%, according to T. Rowe Price. The combination of withdrawals and lousy performance so depletes your portfolio that you can't make it up when the market rebounds.
Earning stellar gains early on doesn't guarantee that your money will last, but it helps. This brings us to another risk: If the markets are kind to you, a good chance exists that your money not only will be there well into your dotage but will grow to more than you had at the beginning. Apply the 4% rule to a |
 |