Danger, Will Robinson!

Are you ready for a recession, a downturn in the stock market and economy? It's not an immediate certainty, of course, but we'll surely encounter one again, and soon, according to some experts. None other than Alan Greenspan saw the risk of one as nearly 50% recently. He pointed to the subprime-lending mess we have on our hands, for one thing.

So let's say a recession is looming. What can you do to prepare for it? Well, a bunch of things. Some commentators are suggesting looking at exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on stocks outside the U.S. and on defensive industries.

Global ETFs
There are a variety of ETFs that invest globally. For instance, the Vanguard All World (VEU) ETF has half of its assets in Europe and another third in Asia. Of course, foreign companies and economies are still affected by ours, so you can't completely avoid the effects of a U.S. recession. But with more than 2,000 holdings, including Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM), and BP (NYSE: BP), you'll at least get plenty of diversification.

One area many people think of as a defensive industry is the consumer-staples sector. Many companies in

Everyone likes a surprise when it's good news. The problem is, the stock market has been delivering surprises all too regularly recently, and most of them have been unfavorable. Whether it's financial companies like Merrill Lynch or mortgage companies like Countrywide, the hits just keep on coming. As exciting as uncertainty can be sometimes, investors can find comfort in solid, predictable results like those from Procter & Gamble's (NYSE: PG) second quarter.

You can actually just about take P&G's six-month financial statements, divide by two, do a little rounding, and you'll have second-quarter results. Consider these numbers for the second quarter and six months; respectively: total sales up 9% and 8%, gross margin up 7% and 7%, operating income up 8% and 9%, and diluted EPS growth of 17% and 17%.

Even the fact that second-quarter EPS beat consensus Street estimates by one penny isn't much of a surprise. Over the past several quarters, Procter & Gamble has on average beat those consensus estimates by -- you guessed it -- a penny each quarter. It doesn't get much more consistent than that.

The company did provide a few interesting tidbits for investors to chew on. Procter & Gamble announced plans to separate its coffee business into an independent company named The Folgers Coffee Company. The Folgers brand has been a part of P&G for 45 years, and represents about 8% of both sales and

The market learned last Friday that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) had taken an 8.6% stake in Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), making it the largest shareholder in the company.

This is hardly a surprise move for the "oracle from Omaha," as Buffett also owns large stakes in two other consumer-products companies -- Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG). Buffett is known to favor companies that are simple, understandable, and undervalued. Kraft certainly has a straightforward business model, so the question left to explore is whether the company is undervalued.

Organic growth accelerating
Last year, Kraft delivered 5% organic sales growth (excluding the effects of currency and divestitures). More importantly, organic sales momentum built throughout the year, improving from 3.6% in the first quarter to 6.2% in the fourth quarter. Solid.

Kraft is following a carefully designed strategy to improve product quality and grow market share. The company has been reluctant to just increase prices, preferring to accept some short-term margin hits in favor of top-line momentum. The approach is paying off, as Kraft gained or held share in businesses representing 50% of their volume in the fourth quarter. That's not stellar, but it is a marked improvement from the first quarter, when the company gained or held share in businesses representing only 38% of

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its projection for economic growth this year, citing damage from the double blows of a housing slump and credit crunch. It said it also expects higher unemployment and inflation.

The updated forecasts come at a time Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are concerned the economy could continue to weaken, even after their aggressive interest rate cuts in January, according to minutes of those private deliberations released Wednesday.

"With no signs of stabilization in the housing sector and with financial conditions not yet stabilized, the committee agreed that downside risks to growth would remain even after this action," according to minutes of the Fed's Jan. 29-30 closed door meeting.

The Fed at that session voted to cut a key interest rate by one-half percentage point to 3 percent. Just eight days earlier, the Fed, in an emergency session, slashed its rate by a rare three-quarters percentage point. The two rate cuts together marked the most dramatic rate reductions in a single month by the Fed in a quarter century.

Under its new economic forecast, the Fed said that it now believes the gross domestic product will grow between 1.3 percent and 2 percent this year. That's lower than a previous Fed forecast for growth