John Hughes and Scott Maragioglio recently wrote that there are only three groups worth playing: international, commodities and defensive sectors like consumer staples. Within the consumer staples, I think one worthwhile play is Anheuser-Busch.

For one thing, there are the rumors of price increases that would help sales and margins. With overall beer sales flatter than the beer you set down and then forgot about, price hikes remain the most likely source of growth.

For another thing, the company is acknowledging the slower sales growth prospects by improving its cost structure and returning cash to shareholders. In the process, its EPS growth has the potential to exceed estimates by a wide margin.

Something that stays steady in a recession and throws off cash I will be able to use to buy recession bargains in other sectors? Sounds like a plan worth considering.

104 Million Barrels of Beer on the Wall
Anheuser's latest sales report illustrates the good, the bad and the defensiveness of BUD.

U.S. shipments to wholesalers were 104.4 million barrels in 2007 -- up 2.1 million barrels, or 2%, over 2006, but nearly all of that growth (1.7%) was due to acquired and imported brands. Sales of the

Last year Brazil seemed poised to shrug off its reputation as the laggard of the BRICs, the four hot emerging economies roped together by Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) back in 2001. São Paulo's Bovespa was one of the world's best-performing stock markets in dollar terms, flanking China (Shenzhen and Shanghai) and Bombay on the winners' podium.

Such performance may be hard to sustain. The Bovespa index - up 73 per cent over the year - was propelled by gains for its two largest stocks: oil giant Petrobras and Vale (formerly CVRD), the world's biggest iron ore producer. Their impact was magnified by the Bovespa's peculiar weighting strategy - by traded volume, rather than market capitalisation. Between them, the pair accounted for around three-quarters of the index's gains in the second half of the year.

Take them away, and the picture is mixed. Much of the $32bn raised in Brazilian equity markets last year - the third-highest haul in the world, behind only the Americans and Chinese, according to Dealogic - was poured into the regular engines of a vibrant consumer economy: banks, carmakers, healthcare and education. But this has inflated valuations of companies with dubious track records. Many of the 25 or so recently-listed housebuilders, for example, are trading at big premiums to net asset value without any proven development history. Other sectors also look frothy - the two biggest retailers, B2W Varejo and

NEW YORK (AP) -- Airline shares rallied Thursday following a string of heavy losses, after oil futures fell and a prominent industry analyst predicted share prices will bounce back.

The Amex Airline Index, which had been wallowing at its lowest level in years, surged 8 percent to 31.56 in morning trading. Broader indexes fell. The Dow Jones industrial average declined 0.2 percent to 12,708.07.

Oil prices tumbled amid growing concerns over economic weakness in the U.S. Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $1.52 to $94.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dipped as low as $93.30 earlier in the session.

Airline stocks often move inversely to oil prices because of the industry's heavy exposure to fuel costs. Investors have also been worried that a weaker economy could hurt demand for air travel.

JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker offered traders a slightly different take, however. While he acknowledged that "recessions and loss production are facts of life for airlines," Baker noted that "prior recessions have led to market-trouncing gains (for investors), typically coming while the recession is in full swing

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures fell Thursday on growing concerns that a U.S. economic slowdown is imminent and will depress demand.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments that the central bank is ready to cut interest rates to help stave off a recession helped crude prices pare some of their losses, as did an attack on six oil industry ships by Nigerian rebels. But prices stayed in negative territory after a tepid unemployment claims report and weak holiday sales at many large retailers, data that compounded the market's growing fears of an economic downturn.

An Energy Information Administration report that demand for crude oil and petroleum products fell last week for the third week in a row contributed to the price declines.

"Without U.S. demand and without stronger economic growth, crude oil can't stay in the $90s," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Fla.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $1.96 to settle at $93.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after dipping as low as $93.30 earlier.

Bernanke's comments raised chances the Fed will cut rates by a half percentage point when it meets at

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A buyout of hobbled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial likely would be approved by regulators, analysts say, because otherwise the company could file for bankruptcy, injecting further uncertainty into the home-loan market.

Bank of America Corp. is in talks to acquire Countrywide, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times reported Thursday online, citing unidentified people familiar with the deal. The transaction would put the country's largest mortgage lender, which has experienced a surge in home-loan defaults and has seen its share price plummet, in the hands of the largest U.S. bank by market capitalization.

A Bank of America-led buyout is "the one and only hope that (Countrywide) has" to avoid bankruptcy, according to Sean Egan, managing director of independent ratings firm Egan-Jones Ratings Co. Egan-Jones warned earlier this week that Countrywide could "falter" unless it receives an infusion of $4 billion in capital within the next two weeks.

"I cannot imagine that the regulators want Countrywide to go under," said Bert Ely, a banking industry consultant in Alexandria, Va. "I think they're actually quite nervous about that."

A combination of Bank of America and Countrywide would require approval from the Federal Reserve, and

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke borrowed a page from Alan Greenspan's crisis playbook when he promised emphatically to cut interest rates further if the weak economy needs the help.

The response from Wall Street on Thursday showed that the former Princeton economics professor is improving but still has a few things to learn before he can match Greenspan's magic in wowing financial markets.

Still, the effort rated at least a "B+" while previous Bernanke attempts to handle the first major crisis in his two-year tenure at the Fed have gotten far lower grades.

The Dow Jones industrial average reacted to the last Fed rate cut on Dec. 11 by plunging 294.26 points -- not exactly the response Bernanke was seeking as a way to instill confidence that he is up to the task of combatting the nation's worst credit crunch since the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s.

The problem has been that Bernanke and his Fed colleagues have appeared to be providing rate relief in a grudging fashion, disappointing investors who wanted a full-throated pledge that the central bank was prepared to do whatever was needed to keep the country from falling into a recession.

On Thursday in a Washington speech, Bernanke was more forceful. "We stand ready to take substantive