It was another day of mixed trading in the US dollar. The greenback rallied against the Euro, British pound, Japanese Yen and Canadian dollar but lost ground against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The lack of economic data this week has given traders and economists the opportunity to think about how bad the US economy will fare in 2008. Since the disturbingly weak non-farm payrolls number released on Friday, there has no been economic data to confirm or deny that the US economy is headed for a recession. As a result, most traders have braced for the worst as rate cut expectations continued to edge higher. According to Fed fund futures, the probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 50bp at the end of the month is now 74 percent compared to 68 percent yesterday and 24 percent a week ago. The current debate in the market is 25 versus 50, but lets take a look at what economists are expecting beyond the January meeting. Assuming the Fed cuts by only 25bp, we could see as much as 150bp of further easing.

Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect interest rates to be at 2.50 percent by the end of the year, while Merrill Lynch is calling for rates to hit 2 percent in early 2009. On the other side of the spectrum, RBS Greenwich and Bear Stearns only believe that another 25bp is needed before the easing cycle comes to an end. At DailyFX, expect another 75 to 100bp of further easing before the cycle is over and we believe

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices settled lower Wednesday after swelling gasoline supplies offset a tumble in crude oil stockpiles to their lowest level in more than three years.

Crude inventories fell 6.8 million barrels, or 2.3 percent, to 282.8 million barrels during the week ended Jan. 4, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. It marked the eighth consecutive decline, dragging supplies to their lowest point since October 2004.

The drop was more than 8 times the 800,000 barrels that analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast. However, gasoline inventories beat expectations, rising a strong 5.3 million barrels, or 2.6 percent, to 213.1 million barrels. Analysts forecast stockpiles would climb by only 1.6 million barrels last week.

"The gasoline market won the tug of war," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York.

Contributing to the drop in crude oil stocks were efforts by Gulf Coast refineries to minimize their inventories, which are subject to year-end taxes, he said. Crude supplies also tend to bottom out early in the year, Evans said.

"When we have weak gasoline demand, as we do now, and when we have swelling gasoline inventories,

When Henry "Bud" Hebeler was winding down his career at Boeing nearly 20 years ago, he was appalled at the advice he got from retirement planning software.

"The assumptions about returns, inflation, longevity and expenses were highly simplistic," says the 74-year-old Hebeler. With his engineering degrees from MIT and his experience - first as Boeing's chief forecaster and planner and later as president of Boeing Aerospace - Hebeler figured he could do better.

He has. His Web site, AnalyzeNow.com, is a compendium of advice and tools (mostly free) that can help you tackle topics ranging from how to create a retirement budget to whether to buy an annuity.

What distinguishes Hebeler from the typical retirement "expert" is that he combines a strong quantitative background with real-life retirement experience - his own and that of fellow retirees.

Hebeler took time out from his hectic schedule of skiing, golf, travel and running a site to share his thoughts.

Q. What's the most popular misconception about retirement planning?

A. That your spending will drop as you age and you become less active. My father played golf until he was

PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. said Wednesday its fourth-quarter earnings soared 76 percent, buoyed by the pending sale of its packaging and consumer businesses.

Net income rose to $632 million, or 75 cents per share, for the three months ended Dec. 31, from $359 million, or 41 cents per share, during the same period a year earlier.

The earnings included a favorable restructuring adjustment and tax benefit totaling $323 million, or 38 cents per share, mostly stemming from the company's recent agreement to sell the packaging and consumer businesses.

Quarterly revenue fell to $7.39 billion from $7.84 billion last year, due to lower metal prices and the exclusion of results from a soft alloy extrusion business that is now part of a joint venture.

The results easily beat Wall Street expectations. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, on average, were looking for earnings of 33 cents per share on $6.92 billion in revenue. Those forecasts typically exclude one-time items.

Alcoa shares rose $1.20, or 3.8 percent, to $32.45 in after-hours trading. Before the results were