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The Race for Super Profits From Super Bowl

Main
For entrepreneur Steve Sodell, the Super Bowl started in late October. That's when he and his staff of 12 began renting retail space in shopping malls and hotels across the Phoenix metro area—stuffing shelves with NFL-licensed T-shirts, hats, and other collectibles emblazoned with this year's Super Bowl XLII logo. By the day of the big game on Feb. 3, his makeshift merchandise empire will comprise 24 stores and 42 employees. Ten days later, business shuts down and Sodell starts planning for next year's Super Bowl in Tampa. "We have a very short window of opportunity to make our money," he says.

The race for Super Bowl profits is on. While the New England Patriots attempt to become the first team in the National Football League to reach a perfect 19-0 record, businesses across the country are banking on this game to be a bigger economic driver than any single sporting event in history.

Some records have already been set: The cost of a 30-second commercial during Fox's broadcast, $2.7 million, is the highest ever. So is the price tailgaters will pay to get inside University of Phoenix Stadium, between $700 and $900. But the cavalcade of businesses and entrepreneurs that have come to surround the Super Bowl—from snackmakers and electronics retailers to the bookies in Vegas and the hotel operators in Phoenix—are gearing up and holding onto hope that consumers will put aside concerns of a tightening economy and indulge in this Super Sunday with extravagant parties, big-ticket purchases, and

Gold continues its strong run

Futures and Commodities
Gold prices continued to skyrocket Thursday on the falling U.S. dollar, supply concerns and high world-wide demand.

At the market's close Thursday, gold for April delivery traded at $928 an ounce, up from the previous record close on the New York Mercantile Exchange of $926.30 set Wednesday.

Gold for April delivery is currently trading at the highest volume at the exchange. February contracts for gold - the nearest traded contracts - settled at $922.70 an ounce, and March contracts closed at $925.70.

The commodity soared Wednesday as the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate for the second time in just over a week. Lower interest rates stimulate the economy, but they can also weaken the dollar. With inflation on the rise amid a slumping stock market, many investors have turned to gold as a safety net, sending the price of gold soaring.

"We have seen a lot of momentum trading recently," said Jon Nadler, an analyst with Kitco. "There was a bit of a knee-jerk reaction after the Fed."

Gold futures have risen more than 42% since August. In early January, they surpassed the previous all-time high of $847 an ounce - a record that dated back 28 years.

As inflation and resulting demand for gold drives the price of the precious metal higher, supply concerns

Help! My Company Doesn't Offer a 401(k)

Retirement Planning
Question: What should I do if my employer doesn't offer a 401(k)? I feel like I took a pay cut when I accepted my job since I am losing a significant benefit. I already do an IRA, but would like to do more. --S. R., Fort Lee, New Jersey

Answer: I don't know whether you effectively took a salary cut in moving to your new job. After all, it's possible that you also gained some benefits or perks that your previous employer didn't provide.

But I can say that not having access to a 401(k) will make it more challenging for you to save for retirement.

So the question is: How do you respond to that challenge and stay on track toward a secure retirement?

Roth vs. traditional IRA

You don't say whether you're doing a regular deductible IRA or a Roth IRA, but I think you should at least consider the Roth for several reasons. One is that you've already put money into a tax-deferred retirement account (the 401(k) at your old job) that will be taxed at ordinary income rates when you withdraw at retirement. Adding a Roth IRA, which offers the prospect of tax-free withdrawals, will allow you to hedge your tax exposure in retirement.

What's more, the fact that Congress set the same contribution limits for both regular and Roth IRAs effectively allows you to put away more money on a tax-advantaged basis by doing a Roth. That ability

Google 4Q Profit Misses Analyst Target

Market News
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Google Inc.'s earnings and revenue growth decelerated more than analysts anticipated during the fourth quarter, magnifying worries that the Internet search leader's moneymaking machine is bogging down as the U.S. economy teeters on the brink of recession.

The quarterly results released Thursday spooked already jittery investors, causing Google's slumping stock price to plunge another 7 percent.

Google earned $1.21 billion, or $3.79 per share, during the final three months of 2007. That's up 17 percent from net income of $1.03 billion, or $3.29 per share, in the same period a year earlier.

It's the first time Google's profit Google's quarterly profit has climbed by less than 25 percent since the Mountain View-based company went public nearly 3 1/2 years ago.

If not for stock awards given to its employees, Google said it would have made $4.43 per share -- a penny below the average estimate among analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

Chief Executive Eric Schmidt rebuffed the notion that the feeble U.S. economy undercut Google's growth.

"I am happy to say we have not seen a negative impact from the rumors of a future recession," Schmidt

Two Stocks with Hefty Expected Returns

Strategy and Analysis Central
Following is a sampling of stocks that recently jumped to 5 stars. By way of background, we award a stock 5 stars when it trades at a suitably large discount--i.e., a margin of safety--to our fair value estimate. Thus, when a stock hits 5-star territory, we consider it an especially compelling value.

Anheuser-Busch Companies
Moat: Wide
Risk: Below Average
Price/Fair Value Ratio*: 0.83
Three-Year Expected Annual Return*: 15.5%

What It Does: Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD - News) is the largest American brewer. Its domestic beer brands, which include Budweiser, Michelob, Busch, and Natural Light, are produced at 12 breweries in the United States. The company owns 50% of Grupo Modelo and has made substantial investments in Chinese breweries. It also owns a brewery in the United Kingdom and licenses its brands to various brewers worldwide. The company owns packaging companies and nine theme parks, including Sea World and Busch Gardens.

What Gives It an Edge: Morningstar analyst Ann Gilpin thinks Anheuser-Busch has a wide economic moat. The firm dominates the domestic beer market with nearly 50% share, and this scale advantage has

International Sales Double Amazon Profit

Market News
SEATTLE (AP) -- Amazon.com Inc. said Wednesday its fourth-quarter profit more than doubled, helped by fast-growing international sales.

The Web retailer also issued better-than-expected sales guidance and appeared unconcerned about a possible recession.

But its shares sank after hours as investors did the math and saw that rising sales wouldn't bring as rich a profit as they'd hoped.

The stock plunged $8.33, or 11 percent, to $65.88 in electronic trading, after ending the day with a small gain at $74.21.

Amazon's earnings in the crucial holiday quarter climbed to $207 million, or 48 cents per share, from $98 million, or 23 cents per share, in the same period last year.

Results matched Wall Street's expectations: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a profit of 48 cents per share.

Revenue rose 42 percent to $5.67 billion from $3.9 billion in the year-ago quarter, topping analysts

Paying Off a Mortgage in Retirement

Retirement Planning
Should I pay off my mortgage early to get rid of the monthly payments?

I retired five years ago at age 55 with a pension and a 401(k) from which I took fixed withdrawals through age 59 1/2. Then, I rolled over the 401(k) to a low-risk annuity with a $200,000 balance. I have $50,000 left to pay on my mortgage (five years left on a 10-year loan with a 5.375% interest rate). With most of the interest paid on this loan, I'm wondering if it would be better to pay off the balance with an annuity withdrawal or continue to make monthly payments. I realize I would have to pay taxes on the annuity withdrawal, but I could use the extra $1,000 a month now rather than in five years.


--James Wilson, Chula Vista, Calif.


Your dilemma is a common one: Should people pay off their mortgage when they retire -- and get rid of that big monthly expense?

Part of the decision is based on what helps you sleep better at night. Some retirees prefer to spend a chunk of their nest egg upfront so they no longer have to worry about a mortgage; others feel more secure keeping the money in their savings accounts as long as possible.

Looking at the numbers rather than the feelings involved, three certified financial planners we consulted all had the same advice: In most cases, your best bet would be using the annuity to fund your monthly

Countrywide Loss Doesn't Deter BofA

Market News
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The $422 million loss Countrywide Financial Corp. reported Tuesday didn't appear to scare off Bank of America.

"At this point, everything is a go to complete this transaction," Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Ken Lewis said at an investor conference in New York.

Countrywide's fourth-quarter earnings fell far short of Wall Street estimates, with a loss more than double what analysts predicted. But investors didn't run away from the nation's mortgage lender; instead, they sent Countrywide shares up 36 cents, or 6.5 percent, to close at $6.31.

Stock in Bank of America -- which has offered $4.1 billion in stock for Countrywide -- rose 74 cents, or 1.8 percent, to close at $41.94 Tuesday.

Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide posted its second consecutive quarterly loss as rising home loan delinquencies forced it to boost loss provisions and take impairment charges.

In the third quarter, it reported a loss of $1.2 billion.

The $422 million loss -- or 79 cents per share -- contrasts with earnings of $622 million -- $1.01 per share -- during the same period the previous year. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, has

How Do Fed Rate Cuts Impact Your Portfolio?

Personal Finance
In the summer of 1992, as a young student in economic history, I studied comparative economics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., and interned at a free-trade lobby. During my course of study, I had the opportunity to visit the Federal Reserve with a group of students to meet with a board governor and be briefed on the workings of the central bank of the United States. Of course, being young, I was more excited by the fact that I sat in Alan Greenspan's chair (nameplate affixed) at the Fed's conference room table than I was with what I was supposed to be learning. In any case, unlike impetuous students, investors need to be more concerned with the policy changes emerging from this room than with its personalities.

While many factors, such as inflation expectations and supply and demand, will impact interest rates, it's important to understand the Fed's role as well. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee, currently chaired by Ben Bernake, regulates short-term interest rates with the aim of promoting economic growth (and thus employment) and stable prices (or modest inflation). To achieve those goals, the FOMC has three levers that it can pull: open market operations, the discount rate, and setting bank reserve requirements. Recently, investors have witnessed open market operations, in a series of fed-funds rate cuts (most recently a dramatic 0.75% drop to 3.5% on Jan. 22), as well as cuts to the discount rate

Yahoo to Lay Off 1,000 Workers

Market News
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Yahoo Inc.'s financial funk deepened at the end of 2007, prompting the slumping Internet icon to draw up plans to lay off 1,000 workers.

The Sunnyvale-based company disclosed the upcoming 7 percent reduction in its 14,300-employee work force Tuesday while reviewing a 23 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit and a cautious 2008 outlook. The bad news sent Yahoo shares skidding to their lowest levels in more than four years.

In a prepared statement, Yahoo Chief Executive Jerry Yang warned of looming "headwinds," indicating that the company's tortuous turnaround efforts aren't likely to pay off this year.

Yahoo shares dropped $2.13, or more than 10 percent, in extended trading Tuesday after finishing the regular session at $20.81, up 3 cents. The company's market value has plunged more than 50 percent since the end of 2005, wiping out $35 billion in shareholder wealth.

Yang, Yahoo's co-founder, took over as CEO seven months ago in an attempt to shake things up, but his overhaul hasn't impressed Wall Street so far. The mass firings represent Yang's most dramatic move yet.

"This is a necessary step in our transformation," Yang said during the conference call.

Yahoo didn't specify which areas of its operations will be trimmed in the company's biggest purge since

FBI Probes 14 Companies Over Home Loans

Market News
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The FBI on Tuesday said it is investigating 14 companies for possible accounting fraud, insider trading or other violations in connection with home loans made to risky borrowers.

Agency officials did not identify the companies under investigation but said the wide-ranging probe, which began in spring 2007, involves companies across the financial services industry, from mortgage lenders to investment banks that bundle home loans into securities sold to investors.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is working in conjunction with the Securities and Exchange Commission on the corporate-fraud probe, said Neil Power, chief of the FBI's economic crimes unit in Washington.

As the nation's housing crisis worsens, there has been a dramatic spike in the number of mortgage fraud cases under investigation. An agency spokesman said 1,210 such cases are open, up from roughly 800 a year ago.

The announcement comes weeks after authorities in New York and Connecticut said they are investigating whether Wall Street banks hid crucial information about high-risk loans bundled into securities sold to investors.

Power said the FBI is looking into the practices of so-called subprime lenders, as well as potential

Bears' Bite Reaches All The Way To Utilities

Strategy and Analysis Central
With the markets down and recession in the air, most investors look to classic defensive moves to protect themselves.

But the panic has been so thick that even traditional defensive moves have been failing. One of the most glaring has been utilities exchange traded funds.

Along with commodities and agribusiness, utilities are a classic defensive choice. No matter how bad the markets get, people still need electricity, water and gas.

Even while the rest of the market slid further downward, utilities ETFs were the top-performing sector in the S&P/TSX composite over the first 12 trading days of the year. They declined, but only 2.5% compared with the huge dives seen in other sectors.

Then the panic dump started last week, and it hit across the board. Utilities, basic materials and energy all fell.

'Fear Factor'

"We have unprecedented pessimism in the market right now," said Neal Frankle, president of California-based Wealth Resources Group. "There's an interest rate fear factor, and recession fear, and it's infected

Alternatives To Fidelity's Closed Funds

Strategy and Analysis Central
Fidelity Investments made a giant splash last week, reopening Magellan Fund to new investors.

Fidelity lifted restrictions on Magellan (NASDAQ:FMAGX - News) to reverse the fund's net outflow. Those redemptions had forced manager Harry Lange to sell stocks before he wanted.

But if you're itching to get into some other big-name Fidelity fund that you're now locked out of, don't get your hopes up. Fidelity has no plans to re-open any of its 13 other restricted funds any time soon.

That means funds run by some of Fidelity's top guns -- Will Danoff's $80.9 billion Contrafund (NASDAQ:FCNTX - News) and Shep Perkins' $15.2 billion Mid-Cap Stock (NASDAQ:FMCSX - News), to name two -- remain out of reach to new investors.

All gained at least 18.79% a year on average in that time, according to Morningstar Inc. Fifteen of them averaged at least 25% a year. Eleven have galloped ahead at a rate of more than 30% a year.

The best average annual showing by any of Fidelity's closed funds is 18.74%. That was turned in by $1.5 billion International Small Cap (NASDAQ:FISMX - News).

Still, all of Fidelity's top 25 open outperformers are foreign or sector funds. The $5.8 billion Latin America (NASDAQ:FLATX - News) led them all, averaging 47.64% a year. The volatility that comes with their lack of diversification makes them unsuitable as core holdings for many investors.


The good news is plenty of funds at the giant Boston-based complex are still fair game for shareholders

Recession-Proof Your Life and Protect Your Wealth

Personal Finance
A lot of you had questions on how to recession-proof your life. Gerri Willis had to clean out the inbox early. So we're bringing you e-mails early!

Should I re-file for financial aid?

I am in the middle of the "perfect" storm. My savings in the stock market has dropped $100,000 and my house has dropped in value too. I filled out the FAFSA when my son entered college and got absolutely nothing. Now that my stocks have dropped and I have two kids in college. Should I still fill out the FAFSA again? What are middle-income parents to do? - Debbi, New York

I know how hard it is, but to your question, a resounding yes! The drop in your home value probably won't affect how much aid you get, but the loss of money in stocks may have an impact.

Here's what to do: fill out the FAFSA again and then call the colleges' financial aid office and ask for a Professional Judgment Review. This is how the school can make adjustments to what kind of financial aid you get. Be sure to bring documents that support any unusual financial circumstances, like a loss or change in income or a disability in the family.

And here's a caveat. If you have two kids in college, rather than just one, you qualify for much more aid. You can also check out the expected family contribution calculator on Finaid.org. You can plug in how

Retirement: Shield Your Portfolio From Recession

Retirement Planning
There's lots of talk of a recession these days, making many investors nervous. What exactly is a recession? The technical definition is two quarters (six months) of negative gross domestic product growth. (GDP is the total market value of the new goods and services produced during a specified time span.) More simply, a recession describes a shrinking economy rather than a growing one.

Although a downturn in market performance isn't necessarily a recession, the two can go hand in hand, as the last two recessions in 1990 and 2001 suggest. Currently there's not a consensus on whether the U.S. economy is already in a recession, heading for a recession, or simply slowing down, but it never hurts to be ready. Below are a few important steps to take when the economy turns sour.

Buy, Don't Sell
We all know the old adage "Buy low, sell high." Yet that's the opposite of what some people do when the economic climate looks gloomy. The start of a recession is not the time to liquidate your investments. Depending on your time horizon, you most likely have enough time to ride out short-term stock price drops that might happen during a recession. If you're in your 30s and saving for retirement, a few market bumps will be ironed out in the long run. Still, it's important to construct your portfolio with your time horizon and risk tolerance in mind, which can help you sleep easy if the market continues to tumble.

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