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Why the Fed's Rate Cut May Harm Your Retirement Savings

Retirement Planning
If you're saving for a retirement decades away, Thursday's big drop in the stock market shouldn't worry you too much.

But something did happen this week that you can't afford to ignore: the Federal Reserve's rate cut.

The Fed's actions could very well be ushering in a new era of inflation - and that is horrible news for your retirement portfolio.

When you save for retirement, you're saving for a lifetime supply of food, shelter and golf fees. Over time, the prices for these things only go one way: up.

The risk is that the value of the investments you're now stockpiling to pay for them may not increase at the same pace - leaving you with only enough money to pay for nine holes' worth of green fees.

With its rate cut this week, the Fed has made it clear that staving off recession is more important than reining in inflation.

But while the typical recession has lasted 18 months on average (not including the Great Depression),

Oil Rises on Economy, Iran Sanctions

Futures and Commodities
NEW YORK (AP) -- The prospect of a stronger economy and word of possible new U.N. sanctions against Iran sent crude oil futures back above $96 a barrel Friday, while retail gasoline prices extended their own march higher.

The Labor Department reported that employers boosted payrolls by 166,000 jobs in October, the biggest increase in months and double what economists had forecast. Meanwhile, October's unemployment rate held steady at 4.7 percent. Separately, the Commerce Department said factory orders rose 0.2 percent in September, better than the 0.4 percent decline analysts were expecting.

"It suggests that concerns about the economy ... are overblown a little bit," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc., in Winchester, Mass.

Oil futures added to their gains late Friday when the British Foreign Office said the U.N. Security Council has agreed to draft a new sanctions resolution that could be passed in November if Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency does not improve. Investors worry that any conflict between the West and Iran would disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose $2.44 to settle at a record $95.93 a barrel on the New

NYSE 3Q Profits More Than Triple

Market News
NEW YORK (AP) -- The operator of the New York Stock Exchange said Friday its third-quarter profit more than tripled as market volatility over the summer produced record volume.

NYSE Euronext, the product of the New York Stock Exchange's April acquisition of European rival Euronext, saw earnings surge to $258 million, or 97 cents per share, for the quarter ended Sept. 30 from $68 million, or 43 cents per share, a year earlier.

Excluding costs such as those tied to the acquisitions of Euronext and Archipelago, as well as a gain on the sale of member firm regulatory functions, the company earned $202 million, or 76 cents per share.

Revenue jumped to $1.2 billion from $602 million a year ago, with 25 percent of total revenue generated by trading of derivatives, and 18 percent from European cash trading.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected profits excluding items of 73 cents per share.

NYSE Euronext, which operates exchanges in New York, Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels and Lisbon, said

Berkshire 3Q Net Income Up 64 Percent

Market News
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported a 64 percent jump in third-quarter profit Friday on strong investment gains.

Berkshire said it earned $4.55 billion, or $2,942 per share, during the quarter that ended Sept. 30. That's up from last year's third-quarter net income of $2.77 billion, or $1,797 per share.

Officials at Berkshire, which is led by billionaire Warren Buffett, typically do not comment on quarterly earnings reports. A spokeswoman said no one was available Friday to comment on the report.

Investment gains of $1.99 billion accounted for nearly half of Berkshire's quarterly earnings.

Berkshire's sale of its investment in Chinese oil conglomerate PetroChina may account for a significant portion of the company's investment gains although not all of that happened during the quarter, said Andy Kilpatrick, the stockbroker-author of "Of Permanent Value, the Story of Warren Buffett."

Berkshire started selling off its 2.3 billion shares of PetroChina sometime this summer and finished selling the last of them in October. Buffett has said in interviews that Berkshire made about $3.5 billion on the

Report: Citigroup CEO May Resign

Market News
NEW YORK (AP) -- Citigroup Inc.'s board plans an emergency meeting on Sunday, and Chief Executive Charles Prince is expected to offer to resign, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Journal cited people familiar with the situation.

Citigroup spokesmen declined to comment on the report.

Citigroup posted a 57 percent profit drop in the third quarter after taking billions of dollars in writedowns of debt tied up in the tight credit markets and defaulting mortgages. Speculation about whether Prince would leave has been swirling in the market since then.

Many investors expect Citigroup to take similar, or perhaps even larger, write-offs in coming quarters.

Analysts have downgraded Citigroup and other major financial institutions in recent days because of concerns about their debt holdings and potential write-offs.

Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo estimated in a note late Thursday that the investment banks will need to take an additional $10 billion in writedowns in the fourth quarter, and that Citigroup's share would

Oil Off on Profit-Taking, Economic Worry

Futures and Commodities
NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil prices shot higher and then retreated Thursday, reaching a new record of $96 a barrel before concerns about the economy and France's decision to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserve motivated investors to cash in some of their recent gains.

The Commerce Department's report that consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent in September, less than the 0.4 percent increase analysts expected, raised the prospect of a slowing economy that could depress demand for oil. And downbeat news about manufacturing came from the Institute for Supply Management, which said industrial activity grew in October at the weakest pace since March.

Still, oil prices have surged 20 percent in one month, and when any market rises that far that fast, investors tend to sell to lock in some of their gains.

The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates a quarter-percentage point on Wednesday got a mixed reception in the oil market but probably contributed to some of Thursday's selling, analysts said. On

Spending Growth Slowed in September

Market News
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The growth in consumer spending slowed to a crawl in September as shoppers, worried about a deepening housing downturn, stayed away from the malls.

A different gauge of manufacturing activity slipped close to recession levels last month.

The latest economic data is likely signaling that a sharp slowdown is under way over the next two quarters as the housing slump, this summer's severe credit crunch and now rising energy prices take a toll on economic growth, analysts said.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent in September, the smallest rise in three months and lower than the 0.4 percent increase analysts expected. The 0.4 percent gain in incomes was in line with expectations.

In another report, the Institute for Supply Management, an Arizona-based trade group, said its manufacturing index dipped to 50.9 in October. That was the weakest level since March and the fourth consecutive month that manufacturing has slowed.

The September reading had been 52 and analysts had expected a slightly stronger 51.8 for October. Any

Ala. Court Cuts $3.6B Verdict Vs. Exxon

Market News
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) -- The Alabama Supreme Court on Thursday threw out nearly all of a record $3.6 billion verdict that the state government won against Exxon Mobil Corp. in a dispute over natural gas royalties.

In an 8-1 decision, the state's highest court awarded Alabama $51.9 million in compensatory damages. The court threw out all punitive damages, which made up most of the $3.6 billion verdict, the largest ever in Alabama.

The state conservation department had sued Exxon Mobil, saying it had intentionally underpaid the state for royalties due from natural gas wells the company drilled in state-owned waters along the Alabama coast. Exxon Mobil, the world's biggest publicly traded oil company, argued that no fraud was involved and the case was a routine contract dispute.

"It affirms what we've said all along that this was never a fraud case," Exxon Mobil attorney Dave Boyd said.

Jere Beasley, one of the state's attorneys, said the state will likely ask the court to reconsider.

"When a powerful and politically influential corporate giant can get away with what Exxon did to the

Japanese Yen at Critical Level

Forex
Daily FX
Japanese Yen at Critical Level
Thursday November 1, 6:53 am ET
By Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com


Commentary: The USDJPY has reached the level that we felt would offer resistance and a top. The levels in question are the 100% extension of 113.24-115.04/113.76 at 115.56, the 50% retrace of 117.93-113.24 at the same level, and the former 4th wave at 115.72. Today’s high (to this point) is at 115.73 so we do expect a top and reversal soon.

The next level of potential resistance is the 61.8% retrace at 116.14. Coming under 115.18 instills confidence in the bearish outlook.

Strategy: Bearish now, against 117.10, target below 111.59

Euro Topping?

Forex
Daily FX
Euro Topping?
Thursday November 1, 6:50 am ET
By Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com


Commentary: The appearance of 5 waves up from 1.4125 along with this morning’s decline suggest that a top may be in place at 1.4503. 1.4500 is an important psychological level. At the very least, a return to short term support at 1.4374 is expected, but this is likely a more significant top that will see a return to 1.4125 (4th wave of 2 larger degrees).

Evidence that this could be a more significant top includes the fact that the EURUSD just rallied 7 days in a row (this is rare…and previous instances indicated tops of at least a few figures), and overbought/ divergent daily RSI. Still, there is no sign of a 5 wave decline yet so be careful if attempting to short.

Strategy: Exit bullish position

Chrysler to Cut Up to 12,000 Jobs

Market News
DETROIT (AP) -- Chrysler LLC said Thursday it plans to cut up to 12,000 jobs, or up to 15 percent of its workforce, as part of an effort to slash costs and match slowing demand for some vehicles.

The automaker will cut 8,500 to 10,000 hourly jobs and 2,100 salaried jobs through 2008. The company already had begun cutting 1,100 temporary workers Wednesday. It will eliminate shifts at five North American assembly plants and cut four vehicle models from its lineup.

The cuts come in addition to the 13,000 layoffs Chrysler announced in February as part of a massive restructuring plan. Those cuts included 11,000 production jobs and 2,000 salaried jobs. The new round of cuts was expected to involve buyouts or early retirement packages similar to those made in February.

Chrysler officials said falling demand for vehicles in the U.S. market made the cuts necessary. Chrysler's sales were down 3 percent in the first nine months of this year, according to Autodata Corp., and the company said it expects sluggish sales to continue in 2008.

"The market situation has changed dramatically in the eight months since Chrysler established the Recovery and Transformation Plan as its blueprint," Bob Nardelli, Chrysler's chairman and chief executive

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