The Safest Stocks in a Dangerous Market

By James Altucher
Stockpickr.com

When the market is as volatile and dangerous as it is now, you should consider a technique that I borrow from the world of professional chess playing.

The key to playing a good game of chess at "master" levels is to "accumulate small advantages." A small advantage in chess might mean having a better protected king or controlling an open file with a rook.

The same strategy applies in investing but a small advantage here might mean top management is buying shares or Warren Buffett owns the stock. If you accumulate enough of these advantages you have a tangible edge.

Perhaps the best small advantage to follow is to follow what insiders are doing, be it a CEO purchasing shares or a company engaging in a buyback. At Stockpickr (and to this column's right) you can see several portfolios that monitor key insider buying and share repurchase programs. Each portfolio has ten stocks that we think are worth noting.

General Electric (GE)

GE, the world's second largest company by market value, has doubled its stock buyback program to $14 billion, and plans to repurchase $12 billion by the end of the year. The stock also offers a generous 2.8% dividend yield.

The industrial, finance and media conglomerate reported a 9.6% rise in second quarter earnings with profits of $5.42 billion, or 53 cents a share, up from $4.95 billion or 48 cents a share a year ago. Revenue rose 12% to $42.3 billion. The oil, gas, aviation, energy, and commercial finance businesses did best this quarter.

GE also announced it will get rid of its subprime unit, WMC Mortgage, after the branch reported a $160 million loss. This move by GE is a way for it to exit the dreaded subprime environment. WMC Mortgage has dumped $3.7 billion of its subprime mortgage portfolio but still has $1.1 billion remaining.

UBS, which rates the stock Buy, recently boosted its target price from $45 to $47, noting that the commercial financial services and infrastructure segments reported second quarter results far ahead of expectations. UBS also applauded GE’s 8% organic growth and its increased buyback plan.

We also like to see that noteworthy funds like Caxton Associates own the stock. Caxton is a $16-billion dollar New York-based trading and investment firm founded in 1983 by the legendary billionaire macro trader Bruce Kovner. Over the past decade, Caxton has reportedly returned more than 28% annually. Caxton has been ranked one of the top 10 of the largest hedge funds in the world. David Dreman, another investing great, also likes GE.

ConocoPhillips (COP)

ConocoPhillips, the nation’s third-largest oil company, authorized a $15 billion buyback program through 2008 that includes $2 billion left over from the $4 billion plan implemented in February.

Shareholders may cheer the buyback because it demonstrates management's commitment to return more cash to shareholders. It's also comforting to know that it can afford it. After looking at the company’s free cash flow, asset sales and compensation from its Venezuelan production, a buyback of this size is easily within its means.

The Houston oil giant reported first quarter net income of $3.5 billion or $2.12 a share and revenue of $41.3 billion.

Bernstein Research reiterated an outperform rating stressing that the buyback program should boost shareholder value. Secondly, and equally important, with a buyback of this size, the directors are basically telling the shareholders they will not sell the company, at least not in the near term.

"ConocoPhillips has constantly lived under a dark acquisition cloud since the Burlington transaction," Bernstein says, but now shareholders should be relieved from that fear -- at least for the next 18 months. Bernstein raised its price target to $95 from $88.

Investing legend Warren Buffett also is a fan. In fact, ConocoPhillips currently accounts for 2.1% of his portfolio.

Liberty Media Capital (LCAPA)

Liberty CEO Gregory B. Maffei recently purchased 15,000 shares or $1,764,000 worth of stock for his own accounts.

Maffei is exploring a few options to raise the stock price. Liberty owns a minority stake in DirecTV, but recent reports say Maffei is considering buying all of DirecTV. Spinning off DirecTV into a tracking stock for Liberty would benefit investors seeking to invest more directly into DTV, the top U.S. satellite operator.

"It makes sense to give investors a way to invest in those assets directly rather than the pile of companies," Maffei said about the possible spinoff of DirecTV as a tracking stock.

This is on the heels of a $500 million dollar buyback the company authorized two months ago. The shares, priced between $23.75 and $25.75, were sold in a Dutch auction class self-tender offer.

Deutsche Bank recently raised its price target from $144 to $148. It foresees the company becoming the largest shareholder in DTV by acquiring News Corp's 38.4% stake in the company, along with its four DirecTV board seats.

The benefits from a DirecTV transaction would be substantial. Liberty would receive $5 billion reduction in tax basis, a 14% discount to DTV’s closing price on the eve of the transaction, a cash component of $1.15 billion in value, and most importantly financial flexibility through control this underleveraged asset.

Given DTV's low leverage, and substantial equity cushion, the opportunities for Liberty Media to push DTV to lever up are enormous. Deutsche bank concludes, "LCAPA remains one of our top picks and we reaffirm our Buy."

Jefferies (JEF)

Another stock with a large insider purchase is Jefferies (JEF). CEO Richard Handler recently purchased 326,609 shares or $9,821,000 worth of stock.

The New York investment bank recently posted second-quarter earnings of $67.8 million, or 45 cents a share, up from $45.6 million, or 32 cents a share, in the prior-year period. Revenue was $465.5 million, up from $327.3 million last year. The stock also has an attractive P/E ratio of 13x.